Giants fans, management would like a refund on Barry Zito

After making a world series appearance in 2002 and having consecutive 90 wins in 03'and 04', the San Francisco Giants posted consecutive sub .500 seasons in 05' and 06'. Brian Sabean, the GM of the Giants, was on the hot seat and under pressure to make a splash in free agency. With the NL West projected to be very tough from top to bottom, it was clear to Sabean and the Giants they needed more help and adding one big player could possibly put them over the top. Plus you had Barry Bonds unsigned and they needed to prove to him they were trying to be a contender this year so he wouldnt retire or sign with another club. Pressure was mounting in the 07' offseason as all the biggest names were coming off the board. Here's a list of the 6 biggest free agent signings and their contracts they had inked up until the point before Zito signed with the Giants:

Jason Schmidt, LA Dodgers: 3 years 47 million
Gil Meche, KC Royals: 5 years 55 million
Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs: 4 years 40 millon
Jason Marquis, Chicago Cubs: 3 years 27 million
Daisuke Matsusaka, Boston Red Sox: 6 years 52 million
Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee Brewers: 4 years 40 million

When you take a look at those contracts, your first reaction is wow. Thats a lot of money being thrown around, averaging in the range from 9-14 million a year for pitchers who really arent considered aces. Schmidt you might could say that for, but age and durability concerns i think wouldnt qualify him for that tag and Matsusaka was a total unknown. You really had no idea how his game would stack up against the MLB hitters. Meche, Lilly, Marquis and Suppan are marginal #2 or 3 pitchers on a staff at best. Those guys posted an era between 4.00 and 4.50 last year and Marquis's era was over 6! So with all these average pitchers signing huge deals already, you know this set up for a perfect storm for Barry Zito's agent, Scott Boras. Boras is notoriously known now around all of baseball and all sports for getting his players signed to deals that are usually far above their projected market value. His most notable clients are Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran. Boras got the Texas Rangers to big against themselves, awarding Arod to the richest contract in baseball history, 10 years 252 million dollars. Boras got the Astros and Mets in a bidding war for Carlos Beltran using the Astros as leverage for Beltrans monstrous 7 year 119 million dollar contract he signed with the Mets. Barry Zito had been one of the most durable pitchers in the last previous 6 seasons, logging at least 34 starts and at least 210 innings a season. Zito had a Cy Young award under his belt from 2002, and carried a lot more name recognition and sizzle than the other 6 highest highest paid free agent pitchers. Thats all the ammunition Boras needed to sign Zito with the desperate Giants to one of the biggest contracts for a pitcher in baseball history: 7 years 126 million dollars. Lets now fast forward to the present and take a look at how all these pitchers are doing currently and compare their numbers. (gs= games started, qs= quality starts)

Barry Zito 7-10 5.28 era 21 GS 10 QS
Gil Meche 7-7 3.76 era 22 GS 14 QS
Daisuke Matsusaka 12-7 3.79 era 21 GS 13 QS
Ted Lilly 11-4 3.46 era 21 GS 13 QS
Jason Marquis 7-6 4.20 era 21 GS 9 QS
Jeff Suppan 8-9 5.08 era 22 GS 8 QS
Jason Schmidt 1-4 6.31 era injured

Looking at those numbers, you can say that some of those pitchers are living up to their contracts based on their previous numbers. Lilly has probably done the best, and Matsusaka wont win the Cy Young, but 12 wins, on his way to a 17-19 win season is looking very good for Daisuke and the Red sox. Meche certainly has been a pleseant surprise for the Royals, and has stepped up as their ace (albeit for the Royals). Marquis's era is decent and Suppan's is worse than average, but both players are on contending teams and have given their teams valuable innings, saving the bullpen. Jason Schmidts deal is looking pretty bad, but considering its only a 3 year deal and worth 80 million less, its not quite is big of an issue as Zito's contract. And then there's Barry Zito, who has the 4th worst era in the NL of pitchers who have made at least 20 starts, 7th worst in all the majors. Only Scott Olsen, Adam Eaton, Matt Belisle, Jose Contreras, Odalis Perez and Jorge de la rosa are worse than Zito right now. Lets see how Zito compares on his own team in relation to their stats this year and their current salaries: (gs= games started, qs= quality starts)


Barry Zito 7-10 5.28 era 21 GS 10 QS, 10 million, 7yrs 126 mil
Tim Lincecum 6-2 3.90 era 15 GS 10 QS , (? minor league deal, under 1 mil?)
Noah Lowry 11-7 3.40 era 20 GS 12 QS, 1.3 million, 4yr 9.25 mil
Matt Cain 3-12 4.02 era 21 GS 12 QS, 650,000, 4yr 9 mil
Matt Morris 7-6 4.16 era 20 GS 12 QS, 10 million, 3yr 27 mil

Looking at the rotation's total salary, Zito makes around 80 million total more than the other 4 pitchers combined. Clearly, Zito is the lowest performing starter of the 5. If Tim Lincecum had pitched all year, he would have more than 10 quality starts, giving Zito the least amount of quality starts and the highest ERA. Matt Cain has more losses, but has definitely outpitched Zito and his losses are more a product of bad run support. Given how much free agent pitchers were being paid in the 07' offseason, Cain and Lowry look like great bargains at this point, unlike Zito. Zito's stats are so bad, if he was just any young pitcher out there, he'd be sent down to the minors. But given his salary and track record, he will be forced to work it out in the majors. Looking back, would anyone have predicted Zito would be this bad? The answer to that would be no. Some thought a move to the NL would boost his numbers but they have done the opposite. But i think if the Giants management would looked closer at the numbers, they would know that Zito is not near the pitcher he was back in 2002. Here is Zito's numbers from his rookie year to present:

Year Team GS W L IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
2000 OAK 14 7 4 92.2 64 30 28 6 45 78 2.72 1.18 .195
2001 OAK 35 17 8 214.1 184 92 83 18 80 205 3.49 1.23 .230
2002 OAK 35 23 5 229.1 182 79 70 24 78 182 2.75 1.13 .218
2003 OAK 35 14 12 231.2 186 98 85 19 88 146 3.30 1.18 .219
2004 OAK 34 11 11 213.0 216 116 106 28 81 163 4.48 1.39 .263
2005 OAK 35 14 13 228.1 185 106 98 26 89 171 3.86 1.20 .221
2006 OAK 34 16 10 221.0 211 99 94 27 99 151 3.83 1.40 .257
2007 SF 21 7 10 121.0 121 77 71 15 58 81 5.28 1.48 .260

When you look at Zitos first full 3 seasons, 01'-03', he was a very good pitcher and one of the best no doubt. But if the Giants management wouldve examined his last 3 seasons in 04'-06' they should've noticed several red flags. First and most noticable to the average fan would be his era. Between 01-03 he had an average era of around 3.20, between 04-06 it was around average around 4.10, almost a full run higher. So his last 3 years in Oakland, he was only marginally better than a league average pitcher. The next red flag that shouldve been noticed is Zitos rising WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched). From 01-03, his WHIP was between 1.13 and 1.23, which is very good. A good pitcher wants to keep a WHIP in the 1.20-1.30 range (elite pitchers are usually between 1.00 and 1.20). The average pitcher's WHIP might be around 1.30 to 1.40 or higher. Zito's WHIP in 04' and 06' rose from 1.20 in the first 3 years to 1.39 and 1.40. His BAA, batting average against, which was lower than .230 his first 3 seasons, was significantly higher in 04' and 06' rising around 30 pts to .257 and .263. Zito averaged around 20 homers allowed in his first 3 seasons, which is pretty good, most good pitchers allow less than the low 20's. His last 3 seasons though he averaged 27 home runs allowed which is worse than the average MLB pitcher. In addition to all those stats, his strikeout rate decreased the last 3 seasons, and with the higher BAA, Zito was giving up about a hit per inning. Many of Zitos numbers across the board in his last 3 seasons with Oakland were average or just below average.

Barry Zito's contract may end up being historically bad, and it was already being talked about before the season even started (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove06/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=2717201&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines). This deal is already being compared to the recent disasters of deals like Mike Hampton and Kevin Brown. Zito is traditionally a better 2nd half pitcher, so he could turn it around and post respectable numbers by the end of the year. But no matter what he does he wont be worth what he signed for. In fact, i think its already its already turning into a disaster for Zito in SF. I watched his last start on friday, and Zito was getting booed off the field. Listening to the announcers and analysts talk about Zito, there could be something wrong with Zito physically and mentally. San Francisco is not a franchise like the Yankees or Red Sox that has an unlimited payroll, and Zito's deal for 18 million a year could handcuff the franchise for years. This deal could be the deathnail for GM Brian Sabean. After another year of last place finish for the Giants, dont be surprised if he doesnt return to the Giants next season. I also wouldnt be surprised if Zito is traded in the next couple years, with the Giants eating most of the contract just to get him out of town. So what have we learned from all of this? First and foremost, Scott Boras, while not a very well liked guy in sports, is very very good at his job and gets his clients paid. Zito probably didnt even deserve 10 million a year, much less 18 million and year and Boras got him his money. Secondly, with the amount of teams in the league and the current crop of pitching, good pitching is high demand and teams realize its great starting pitching that wins championships, so they will continue to pay high dollars. Thirdly, if you are going to throw big money at free agent, he better be an elite player with no questions about his talent. I think there was no question there was a lot of uncertainty about Zito's talent, given his current performance in the past 3 seasons. Like what most small market ballclubs will do, its sometimes better financially to give a young guy a chance than throw big money at a marginal veteran pitcher. The astros did something similar to this on a much lower level, giving Woody Williams a 2 yr/12 million dollar deal in which he has returned them a era over 5.00 so far. They will face a similar type decision on Jason Jennings next season (if they dont trade him), for his value on the deflated pitchers market will likely be in the range of 6-10 million a year. Hopefully the astros dont fall into the same pitfall the Giants did. The more teams get burnt by these overpriced pitchers, you figure the price of pitching will go down. But as long as theres a high demand for good pitching, and agents like Scott Boras are still out there, history will likely continue to repeat itself.

Derek Jeter...overrated?

Derek Jeter is the one the most talked about and most famous players in major league baseball. Whether you like it or not, Derek Jeter has been the most marketed guy in sports and the face of baseball for the last 5-10 years. Many experts say Jeter is on the way to a sure fire hall of fame career, while many fans say he is overrated. He certainly has the awards in his favor: AL rookie of the year, 1 silver slugger award, 3 AL gold gloves, 4 world series rings, and 1 world series MVP. At age 33, he has already 2269 hits, 5 200 hit seasons, a career .317 hitter. But, for all those who like to sing his praises, there are several critics (like myself) who say he gets too much credit and is overrated. For a guy whos supposed to be one of the best players in the whole league, he has only posted 3 20+ home run seasons and never hit over 25 home runs in his 11 year career. So with the lack of power you would think he has swiped a lot of bases in his career (like the gatorade commercial suggests), but he has only stole more than 30 bases 3 times in his career and never topped 35 steals. He averages over 100 K's a year, striking out over 100 times 7 times in his career, and 99 times twice. Only about 30-40 guys in the whole league strike out that much a year and Jeter is on that list. And while he has recently added 3 gold gloves to his resume, it is widely known that the gold glove is more of a popularity contest than anything. In fact there is evidence that suggest Jeter is a below average fielder (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-fielding-bible/) and was undeserving of his gold gloves. Many say he's had the fortune of playing on great teams and wouldnt have near the popularity or perceived greatness if he had played his career outside the northeast or New York and didnt have successful teams and great exposure like he's benefited from his whole career. If he had put up the same statistics elsewhere, say in Milwaukee, he would be a very good player but not near the player he is perceived today.

So, with all that being said, i was trying to think of a test to figure out if Derek Jeter is really "overrated". Well, first you have to figure out what a player is valued to determine whether he is in fact overrated. To me, if a guy has major endorsement deals, and is seen on many commercials, and is the most marketed guy in baseball, i think that player should be one of THE best players in the league, top 10 at least. So how then would we determine the best players in the league? Here was an idea i came up with: If every major league player was put in one big pool of players and the league was redrafted, how far would you get till Derek Jeter was drafted(this year)? Now in fairness, i'll exclude pitchers, just because they have more perceived value and would go before many position players. One thing that will be hard to quantify though is one position player over another. For instance, you cant say because a first basemen has more HRs, RBIs that he should automatically be picked over Jeter because Jeter is a shortstop and first basemen are expected to perform better offensively than shortstops. Because all these guys play different positions and some positions are valued higher than others. I think everyone would agree the highest premium positions are catcher, shortstop, and center field, so guys who can put up numbers in those positions are valued higher. But how do you value a first basemen who hits 35-40 homers for a high average against a shortstop who normally hits half as many homers and less RBIs for high average. Its a tough question to answer. So lets let you play GM, if you could build a team for THIS YEAR only(only this year, dont consider the future), how many players would you pick before Derek Jeter? Well, instead of being definite, which i think it is hard to do, i'll put these guys in different categories for you. Let me say in closing that if you can come up with 10+ players you'd start your team with over Derek Jeter, he has to be at least slightly overrated, because a guy with his popularity and endorsements SHOULD be a top 10 guy. Here is my list, you can reply and make yours, or just debate mine.....

Guys i would definitely take over Jeter:

Albert Pujols
Alex Rodriguez
Vlad Guerrerro

Guys i would take over Jeter, and could make a great argument for them:

Alfonso Soriano
Manny Ramirez
Miguel Cabrera
Jose Reyes
Joe Mauer
Brian McCann
Victor Martinez
Jimmy Rollins
Chase Utley
Hanley Ramirez
Justin Morneau
Ryan Howard
Grady Sizemore
Carlos Beltran
Torii Hunter
Lance Berkman
David Ortiz
Andruw Jones
Ichiro Suzuki
Carl Crawford

Guys i could make a decent or good argument for and could possibly take over Jeter, but i'm not so sure i can take them over Jeter:

Ivan Rodriguez
Travis Hafner
Russell Martin
Barry Bonds
Derrek Lee
Aramis Ramirez
Matt Holliday
David Wright
Gary Sheffield
Vernon Wells
Publish Post

First blog

When i saw that some of my friends had created and posted blogs on this site, i decided it was about time for me to create my own blog. I decided since my main interest and knowledge is sports, that my blog topics will be mostly sports related. For those who are reading this and dont know me, I have played and watched sports all my life. I played basketball and baseball in little league and high school. Today i play in some mens softball and basketball leagues, i play in a few golf tournaments a year when i can, and i used to play flag football. I play fantasy football and baseball every year(and sometimes basketball), both of which i have leagues i play with some friends. I've been fairly successful in my leagues, i usually make the playoffs every year and i have a few titles. My favorite teams in sports are Astros, Cowboys, Texas Longhorns, Mavericks, Predators (hockey, but i'm a very casual fan), and i root for most of the Texas teams. I would say my current favorite players are Roy Oswalt and Tony Romo, past players would be Emmitt Smith. My least favorite teams are the New York Yankees, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Knicks, LA Lakers, Notre Dame, USC or any team from New York (thanks to ESPN). In my blogs i hope to create topics that are interesting, thought provoking, intelligent, and sometimes controversial. I will probably put a lot of time into each post so hopefully they will be informative as well as entertaining.