Monday, July 23, 2007

Derek Jeter...overrated?

Derek Jeter is the one the most talked about and most famous players in major league baseball. Whether you like it or not, Derek Jeter has been the most marketed guy in sports and the face of baseball for the last 5-10 years. Many experts say Jeter is on the way to a sure fire hall of fame career, while many fans say he is overrated. He certainly has the awards in his favor: AL rookie of the year, 1 silver slugger award, 3 AL gold gloves, 4 world series rings, and 1 world series MVP. At age 33, he has already 2269 hits, 5 200 hit seasons, a career .317 hitter. But, for all those who like to sing his praises, there are several critics (like myself) who say he gets too much credit and is overrated. For a guy whos supposed to be one of the best players in the whole league, he has only posted 3 20+ home run seasons and never hit over 25 home runs in his 11 year career. So with the lack of power you would think he has swiped a lot of bases in his career (like the gatorade commercial suggests), but he has only stole more than 30 bases 3 times in his career and never topped 35 steals. He averages over 100 K's a year, striking out over 100 times 7 times in his career, and 99 times twice. Only about 30-40 guys in the whole league strike out that much a year and Jeter is on that list. And while he has recently added 3 gold gloves to his resume, it is widely known that the gold glove is more of a popularity contest than anything. In fact there is evidence that suggest Jeter is a below average fielder (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-fielding-bible/) and was undeserving of his gold gloves. Many say he's had the fortune of playing on great teams and wouldnt have near the popularity or perceived greatness if he had played his career outside the northeast or New York and didnt have successful teams and great exposure like he's benefited from his whole career. If he had put up the same statistics elsewhere, say in Milwaukee, he would be a very good player but not near the player he is perceived today.

So, with all that being said, i was trying to think of a test to figure out if Derek Jeter is really "overrated". Well, first you have to figure out what a player is valued to determine whether he is in fact overrated. To me, if a guy has major endorsement deals, and is seen on many commercials, and is the most marketed guy in baseball, i think that player should be one of THE best players in the league, top 10 at least. So how then would we determine the best players in the league? Here was an idea i came up with: If every major league player was put in one big pool of players and the league was redrafted, how far would you get till Derek Jeter was drafted(this year)? Now in fairness, i'll exclude pitchers, just because they have more perceived value and would go before many position players. One thing that will be hard to quantify though is one position player over another. For instance, you cant say because a first basemen has more HRs, RBIs that he should automatically be picked over Jeter because Jeter is a shortstop and first basemen are expected to perform better offensively than shortstops. Because all these guys play different positions and some positions are valued higher than others. I think everyone would agree the highest premium positions are catcher, shortstop, and center field, so guys who can put up numbers in those positions are valued higher. But how do you value a first basemen who hits 35-40 homers for a high average against a shortstop who normally hits half as many homers and less RBIs for high average. Its a tough question to answer. So lets let you play GM, if you could build a team for THIS YEAR only(only this year, dont consider the future), how many players would you pick before Derek Jeter? Well, instead of being definite, which i think it is hard to do, i'll put these guys in different categories for you. Let me say in closing that if you can come up with 10+ players you'd start your team with over Derek Jeter, he has to be at least slightly overrated, because a guy with his popularity and endorsements SHOULD be a top 10 guy. Here is my list, you can reply and make yours, or just debate mine.....

Guys i would definitely take over Jeter:

Albert Pujols
Alex Rodriguez
Vlad Guerrerro

Guys i would take over Jeter, and could make a great argument for them:

Alfonso Soriano
Manny Ramirez
Miguel Cabrera
Jose Reyes
Joe Mauer
Brian McCann
Victor Martinez
Jimmy Rollins
Chase Utley
Hanley Ramirez
Justin Morneau
Ryan Howard
Grady Sizemore
Carlos Beltran
Torii Hunter
Lance Berkman
David Ortiz
Andruw Jones
Ichiro Suzuki
Carl Crawford

Guys i could make a decent or good argument for and could possibly take over Jeter, but i'm not so sure i can take them over Jeter:

Ivan Rodriguez
Travis Hafner
Russell Martin
Barry Bonds
Derrek Lee
Aramis Ramirez
Matt Holliday
David Wright
Gary Sheffield
Vernon Wells
Publish Post

2 comments:

Jeff and Veronica said...

Good post Brad. I think you're arguing against a phantom though. I'm not sure you can quantify how Jeter is "rated" in order to say whether he is "overrated". What is your baseline comparison? Performance versus popularity and endorsements? There has never been a correlation between performance and endorsements other than the player in question needs to be "marquee". Lebron James didn't play a single second in the NBA before he signed his huge shoe contract. What is Jeter's value to the Yankees? He's a great clubhouse guy, an excellent post-season performer, and the undisputed leader of the most storied team in the history of sports. You may take all those guys over Jeter on your fantasy team, but in real life, it is impossible to compare. Playing in NY is far different than playing in Houston (Berkman) or even Anaheim (Vlad). Put Jeter in those cities where the public pressure is diminished, and who knows what he could do.

To say Jeter isn't worthy of his endorsement dollars and his popularity because his numbers aren't among the best in the game begs the question: do the better performers always get the big endorsement dollars and win the popularity contests? The answer is no, and they never will.

signed,
Devil's Advocate

Anonymous said...

You would take Lance Berkman over Derek Jeter? I think that is absolutely redunkulous! You're just a big Astros homer. Heck, I'd be more inclinded to take Pence over Jeter, except for the fact that Pence is just a rookie. What about Carlos Lee? Prince Fielder? Maybe we should just ask which 3rd base/shortstops would you take over Jeter.

Seriously though, why are you even talking about stolen bases? Have you seen the Yankees line up since, say 1996? The Yankees aren't exactly a team that needs to steal bases. They almost always have one of the highest team batting averages in the league and they hit their share of HRs too.

OBP, Slugging % (which Jeter's probably isn't all that high) and walks are all more relevant to his value that SBs, given the team he's on. Bedsides, not very many people steal 30 bases in a season anymore. Some of them could, but the game has changed to where they don't get the opportunity. I will give you that his SO to Walk ratio is pretty bad considering he is not a power hitter. Remember Derek Bell? Boy did that guy sure did know how to strike out. *shrug*

I thought it was cool how Pence kind of stepped in, maybe being the next Astros icon in the final season of the current icon. Even though I still think Bagwell would have been the bigger name in Houston, had the 1994 season not been canceled. And maybe during the '90s he was the bigger name, but historically Biggio will be now. People forget Bagwell had a shot at hitting 55 and maybe even 60 home runs that year. He had 39 in 110 games (that he played in), a pace for about 57. He battled with that shoulder injury for so long and it kept him from getting 500 HRs. Also in '94, he had a freakish OPS of 1.201 and hit .368. Not to mention 116 RBIs in 110 games He might of ended up with 170. But I guess people from Montreal could cry they would have made the playoffs that year, too.