Every year we have this debate over who should make it over who should and shouldnt make the all star team. You want to see the right players who deserve to go, make the team, but that just doesnt happen every year. With fans voting for their teams players and not the best players, there will always be a few mistakes in the voting. So here is my list of players who were snubbed and players who dont deserve to be on the team, along with my comments.
NL- mistakes
Kosuke Fukudome- This is the problem with fan vote, and having international players, they all vote their own players no matter if they deserve it or not. Fukudome is fine player, but based on his year, has no business being on the roster, or starting for that matter. Give me Lee, Bay, or Burrell instead.
Brian Wilson- The Giants closer who has a good save total, but a mid 4 era. Lincecum is already representing the Giants, so Wilson isnt necessary to have on the team. Cole Hamels is much more deserving.
Carlos Marmol- This guy is a dominant pitcher who replaced Kerry Wood on the all star team and i can understand why he was chosen, but he has struggled over the last month and has an ERA in the 4's now. Again another guy who is taking up a spot that should be for Cole Hamels.
Miguel Tejada- As an astros fan i hate to put him down, but the fact is that he's had one good month, April, and has been average at best the rest of the way. With 2 shortstops already on the team there was no need for him. Jose Reyes has actually outplayed him to this point in the season and is more deserving, or of course Tejada's teammate Carlos Lee over him.
Corey Hart- I like to see a small market guy make the team and i like Hart as a player, but the fact is, the fans got it wrong in the final fan vote. Burrell and Lee were on the ballot and shouldve been voted in.
David Wright- He was named a replacement for the injured outfielder Alfonso Soriano. So why replace an outfielder with a 3rd basemen when theres already two 3rd basemen on the team? Lee/Burrell/Bay have all had better years and shouldve been Sorianos replacement.
Matt Holliday being named starter over Nate Mclouth- You probably wouldnt think of this when it was called out, but Mclouth shouldve been named the starter over Holliday for 2 reasons. First, Mclouth has had a better year and more deserving to start and would be a great story to be named the starter. Secondly, hes the only center fielder on the all star team, so one of the outfielders will be playing out of position when Mclouth isnt on the field, plus Mclouth is superior defensively to Holliday, since Holliday isnt known for his defense.
AL- mistakes
Jason Varitek- This is one of the worst all star selections ever. Varitek is barely over the mendoza line and is on the all star team. Given this is a weak year for catchers in the AL, but there were already 2 other catchers on the team (Mauer, Navarro) so Varitek was not needed and AJ Pierzynski was more deserving with a near 300 average and more RBI's.
George Sherrill over John Danks- Sherrill has an impressive save total this year, but his 4 era is not that impressive. Also, the AL is full of closers and relievers so Sherrill is not needed. Danks has had a nice breakout season with a sub 3 era/whip and nice K/BB totals and much more deserving.
Carlos Quentin starting over Ichiro- Quentin has had a great season this year and should probably start, but we know the Japanese will vote Ichiro on the team whether he deserves to start or not every year.
Dustin Pedroia/ Derek Jeter starting over Ian Kinsler/ Michael Young at 2B/SS- This is east coast bias showing itself in the voting. If fans took one look at the stats and voted based on best player and not favorite player, Kinsler and Young shouldve won easily. If there was any competition at shortstop at all this year, you could say Jeter doesnt deserve to be on the team, because his stats this year are far from all star calibur.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Monday, August 6, 2007
Fantasy sports debate: snake style vs auction style draft
Its that time of year again. Time to call up all your friends and fantasy league mates for another year of fantasy football. In August, the month before the NFL season begins, you will be having league meetings, studying, and preparing for your eventual fantasy football draft around the end of the month. Some you will be starting up new leagues, others will be playing already established leagues with your friends. When you are setting up your league for the year, a lot of decisions have to be made about how the league is run. Decisions like how many teams are gonna be in the league, how many playoff teams, whats the scoring system, what website are we gonna use, where is the draft going to be held, is this a keeper league, and what type of draft are we going to do. Based on those decisions all leagues can all be a little different in some way. One of those decisions i am going to focus on is which draft style to use for your league.
The 2 most popular types of drafts are snake drafts and auction drafts. The two are completely different from each other yet both are effective ways for drafting for your fantasy league. A snake draft is probably a little more commonly used than the auction draft. In a snake draft, you randomly draw for draft picks to see what order everyone gets to gets to draft their players each round. So if you had 8 owners in you league, all 8 people would have a randomly chosen draft number from 1-8 (Some people use last years standings to determine draft order but thats not as common a practice). To make it fair, every other round the order is reversed so owners drafting toward the end of the round in the first round would draft in the beginning of the next round (1-8, 8-1). For example, the owner with the first overall pick would have the last pick in the next round and the owner with the last pick in the first round turn around and have the first pick in the next round. This pattern continues the same way till the end of the draft however many rounds the league determines it needs to fill the teams rosters. An auction draft is totally different. Each owner gets a certain amount of "play money" used to draft their team in a real auction. Every player is "bid" on (except keepers) and the owner who is the highest bidder on each player is awarded that player to their team. Each owner must use their budget in the auction to fill out their entire roster. Most football leagues use around 100 dollars to draft in an auction with for each team and baseball uses 260 dollars. So as you can tell, both drafts are totally different, and they both have their advantages and disadvantages. After drafting in an auction league for the past couple years in my baseball league (when before all i did was snake drafts), i can tell you there are a lot more advantages to an auction draft over a snake draft in fantasy baseball and football. Here are all the advantages to doing a auction draft:
Better for keepers- In most leagues that draft with the snake format, when you want to have a keeper, you have to use your #1 draft pick to keep that player (or if its 2-3 keepers, use your top 2-3 draft picks). Thats not bad, if you've had Ladainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander or some other stud in the past 5 years. For everyone else though, if you werent lucky enough have a top 3 or top 5 player, you will be left without a keeper. Same with baseball with Arod or Pujols or Vlad. But in an auction league, you have the realistic option of keeping anyone on your team, if you bought them for a good price. In an auction league, you can allow owners to keep a player (or players) on your roster the next year for the price you bought them for plus you pay few extra dollars to keep them. In my baseball league, i bought Justin Morneau for 7 bucks and now i can reap the benefits from that. This year i drafted Eric Byrnes for 6 bucks, he is a great keeper candidate for next year. If this was a snake draft though, i doubt he would be worth keeping for a top draft pick, but in my auction league, hes an excellent value. Basically, the auction draft will reward owners who do their homework and draft well, who buy players (sleepers) at low cost and end up performing at a high level. Whereas, in snake drafts, the guy who is lucky enough to be randomly selected for the top 2 or 3 picks is rewarded for the next couple years. So if you want the possibility to keep more players and not limit yourself to a few players, you want to do auction draft for a keeper league.
Everyone has a chance at every player- In most snake drafts, the draft picks are randomly selected for each team. Some snake draft leagues do draft picks in the order by the standing of the previous year but thats not near as common, most just draw picks out of the hat every year or however you want to randomly do it. So in a 10 team league, some lucky owner will end up with the 10th pick. So how does it feel to know by chance or (bad) luck, you get absolutely no shot at a top 5 player? I know in a snake draft, that 10th pick would be the first pick in the 2nd round but that owner still gets no shot at a top player, how fair is that? And how many times do you have players targeted during the draft and they get selected a few picks before your turn, and then you have to pick some guy you really didnt want. And in a 10 team league, you can have anywhere from 2-18 picks between your pick and your next pick, there is huge group of players that will be selected in between there that you just wont be able to get, based on the rankings and projections and where you are on the draft board. How many times do you hear in a snake draft after a pick is made "dang, i really wanted that player"? Well, in an auction draft, you get to find out how much every owner really wanted that player because every owner has an equal shot at every player in the draft(except keepers). Since every player is bid on in the auction, any owner has a shot at getting any player they want. As long as you are willing to pay the highest price for that player, you can get any player you want. This allows you to draft those players and team you like and are not forced to make a decision to draft whats left (which you may not like) at a certain time like in snake drafts. If you are looking for fairness and whats most fair for every owner, auction drafts create the most fair situation for everyone to draft any player.
More difficult/challenging, more strategy involved- In a snake draft, you have to worry about filling out your roster, getting a good balance of players, and filling your team needs. That can be a challenging task for any owner. But if you've done your homework, went through mock drafts, and show up with a good ranking list, almost anyone can show up and draft a good team. In an auction draft though, you have to worry about all those things in building your team, plus you have to manage your team budget. In an snake draft, you do have to keep up with things throughout the draft, but its a little more laid back and since you know exactly when your turn comes and whos there, it makes things easier. Whereas, in an auction draft you are constantly having to think and stay on your game at all times. And since you dont have a "turn" to draft, you just bid on a player whenever you want, and you have to decide on every player that is up for bid whether you should jump in on the bid or not. So therefore, you have less time you can take off and not think during an auction draft. There are so many more things an owner has to think about and consider during the draft. If you are bidding on a player against another owner or owners, there are so many things at play you are going through in your head: How bad does he or I really need this player? How much should i spend on this player before i stop bidding any higher? Are there other cheaper options available that would be a better choice? How much money will i have left to spend on other players after i make this pick? Do the other owners really want this player or are they just driving the price up on me? Should i just try to drive the price up on a particular owner to handcuff him for later picks?....Those are just some of the many questions going through your head on a particular bid. The auction draft also is better for more creative team building. You can spend over half your money on 2 or 3 high priced stud players and then build around them with a lot of cheaper options. Another strategy is saving your money till the end and being able to outbid everyone for any quality player left that you want. Or you can just do the standard and safest thing and spend here and there when the price is right and build a solid team all around. These are just some of the several options and strategies you can employ when going into the auction draft that you couldnt possibly do in a snake draft. If you consider yourself an above average or advanced fantasy manager or would just like more of a challenge, you should definitely do an auction league to test your skills.
More unpredictability- In most snake drafts, the draft order is set before you show up to the draft or you find out when you get there. So most owners go through and do some mock drafts so they know what to expect when they get there. And most of the time you can predict what little group of players you will or can get in each round that you want. And like most any draft, you will have a few owners who make some dumb or unlikely picks that you didnt expect. But by and large, if you have a competitive league with smart owners, most snake drafts are fairly predictable and go according to most rankings or mock drafts. The great thing about an auction draft is, you have absolutely no idea how the draft will go or how your team will look after the draft. You can determine before the draft who you want on your team but if the price is too high you will have to go in a different directions and possibly use different strategies after the draft starts. A lot of players will be drafted at higher and lower prices than you originally expected. Some players you may not expect were highly sought after and end up going way above their projected value. A lot of owners may blow all their money overspending on players early and leaving you with all the money to spend on everyone else . You will always have those couple owners who come up with some wild strategies like spending most of their money on 2 or 3 players or not spending money till late in the draft. Any way you slice it, the auction draft will always provide more unpredictability and suspense than any standard snake draft.
More interactive, more fun, everyone gets more involved, better experience- In your usual snake draft, the draft order is set, so usually you are only speak when its your turn to draft. During an auction draft you have more chances to talk since you can bid on every player. Normally during a snake draft, you usually have at least an owner or 2 that will take a while to draft so it lags the draft and makes it less fun. An auction draft is constant bidding on players so its more fast paced and fun. The highlight of a snake draft is usually that one guy who picks an injured player in the early rounds that you can harass. Other than that and a few surprise picks, thats about all the excitement you get for a snake draft. The auction draft is full of excitement. The auction draft will always provide more twists and turns and surprises. There are several points in the draft where a couple owners get in a bidding war for a player and end up spending way over the projected value and thats always fun to watch. I think the auction experience is more fun in general, since you are bidding on every player you own, you feel like you earned that player as opposed to snake drafts where you just get a player since it was your turn to pick.
Auction draft doesnt usually take longer, less downtime during draft- In my experience with both drafts, either draft will take several hours. If you have a couple guys in your league that take a while to draft in a snake draft though, an auction draft could be quicker to finish than a snake draft. In an auction draft, owners take turns "nominating" players to bid on, they dont have to win the bid on them, they just have to make an opening bid on the player they nominate. So since you dont have to decide on the spot who to draft, only who to nominate, there is much less downtime waiting between picks during an auction draft. Most of the time in an auction draft, if an owner takes more than 30 seconds or so to nominate a player, the other owners will pressure him to hurry and throw a name out. I cant say for certain that every auction draft will go faster or take less time than a snake draft, but i can say that it will be a lot less boring. The only situation i would see doing a snake draft over an auction draft is if every owner cant be present at the draft.
The 2 most popular types of drafts are snake drafts and auction drafts. The two are completely different from each other yet both are effective ways for drafting for your fantasy league. A snake draft is probably a little more commonly used than the auction draft. In a snake draft, you randomly draw for draft picks to see what order everyone gets to gets to draft their players each round. So if you had 8 owners in you league, all 8 people would have a randomly chosen draft number from 1-8 (Some people use last years standings to determine draft order but thats not as common a practice). To make it fair, every other round the order is reversed so owners drafting toward the end of the round in the first round would draft in the beginning of the next round (1-8, 8-1). For example, the owner with the first overall pick would have the last pick in the next round and the owner with the last pick in the first round turn around and have the first pick in the next round. This pattern continues the same way till the end of the draft however many rounds the league determines it needs to fill the teams rosters. An auction draft is totally different. Each owner gets a certain amount of "play money" used to draft their team in a real auction. Every player is "bid" on (except keepers) and the owner who is the highest bidder on each player is awarded that player to their team. Each owner must use their budget in the auction to fill out their entire roster. Most football leagues use around 100 dollars to draft in an auction with for each team and baseball uses 260 dollars. So as you can tell, both drafts are totally different, and they both have their advantages and disadvantages. After drafting in an auction league for the past couple years in my baseball league (when before all i did was snake drafts), i can tell you there are a lot more advantages to an auction draft over a snake draft in fantasy baseball and football. Here are all the advantages to doing a auction draft:
Better for keepers- In most leagues that draft with the snake format, when you want to have a keeper, you have to use your #1 draft pick to keep that player (or if its 2-3 keepers, use your top 2-3 draft picks). Thats not bad, if you've had Ladainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander or some other stud in the past 5 years. For everyone else though, if you werent lucky enough have a top 3 or top 5 player, you will be left without a keeper. Same with baseball with Arod or Pujols or Vlad. But in an auction league, you have the realistic option of keeping anyone on your team, if you bought them for a good price. In an auction league, you can allow owners to keep a player (or players) on your roster the next year for the price you bought them for plus you pay few extra dollars to keep them. In my baseball league, i bought Justin Morneau for 7 bucks and now i can reap the benefits from that. This year i drafted Eric Byrnes for 6 bucks, he is a great keeper candidate for next year. If this was a snake draft though, i doubt he would be worth keeping for a top draft pick, but in my auction league, hes an excellent value. Basically, the auction draft will reward owners who do their homework and draft well, who buy players (sleepers) at low cost and end up performing at a high level. Whereas, in snake drafts, the guy who is lucky enough to be randomly selected for the top 2 or 3 picks is rewarded for the next couple years. So if you want the possibility to keep more players and not limit yourself to a few players, you want to do auction draft for a keeper league.
Everyone has a chance at every player- In most snake drafts, the draft picks are randomly selected for each team. Some snake draft leagues do draft picks in the order by the standing of the previous year but thats not near as common, most just draw picks out of the hat every year or however you want to randomly do it. So in a 10 team league, some lucky owner will end up with the 10th pick. So how does it feel to know by chance or (bad) luck, you get absolutely no shot at a top 5 player? I know in a snake draft, that 10th pick would be the first pick in the 2nd round but that owner still gets no shot at a top player, how fair is that? And how many times do you have players targeted during the draft and they get selected a few picks before your turn, and then you have to pick some guy you really didnt want. And in a 10 team league, you can have anywhere from 2-18 picks between your pick and your next pick, there is huge group of players that will be selected in between there that you just wont be able to get, based on the rankings and projections and where you are on the draft board. How many times do you hear in a snake draft after a pick is made "dang, i really wanted that player"? Well, in an auction draft, you get to find out how much every owner really wanted that player because every owner has an equal shot at every player in the draft(except keepers). Since every player is bid on in the auction, any owner has a shot at getting any player they want. As long as you are willing to pay the highest price for that player, you can get any player you want. This allows you to draft those players and team you like and are not forced to make a decision to draft whats left (which you may not like) at a certain time like in snake drafts. If you are looking for fairness and whats most fair for every owner, auction drafts create the most fair situation for everyone to draft any player.
More difficult/challenging, more strategy involved- In a snake draft, you have to worry about filling out your roster, getting a good balance of players, and filling your team needs. That can be a challenging task for any owner. But if you've done your homework, went through mock drafts, and show up with a good ranking list, almost anyone can show up and draft a good team. In an auction draft though, you have to worry about all those things in building your team, plus you have to manage your team budget. In an snake draft, you do have to keep up with things throughout the draft, but its a little more laid back and since you know exactly when your turn comes and whos there, it makes things easier. Whereas, in an auction draft you are constantly having to think and stay on your game at all times. And since you dont have a "turn" to draft, you just bid on a player whenever you want, and you have to decide on every player that is up for bid whether you should jump in on the bid or not. So therefore, you have less time you can take off and not think during an auction draft. There are so many more things an owner has to think about and consider during the draft. If you are bidding on a player against another owner or owners, there are so many things at play you are going through in your head: How bad does he or I really need this player? How much should i spend on this player before i stop bidding any higher? Are there other cheaper options available that would be a better choice? How much money will i have left to spend on other players after i make this pick? Do the other owners really want this player or are they just driving the price up on me? Should i just try to drive the price up on a particular owner to handcuff him for later picks?....Those are just some of the many questions going through your head on a particular bid. The auction draft also is better for more creative team building. You can spend over half your money on 2 or 3 high priced stud players and then build around them with a lot of cheaper options. Another strategy is saving your money till the end and being able to outbid everyone for any quality player left that you want. Or you can just do the standard and safest thing and spend here and there when the price is right and build a solid team all around. These are just some of the several options and strategies you can employ when going into the auction draft that you couldnt possibly do in a snake draft. If you consider yourself an above average or advanced fantasy manager or would just like more of a challenge, you should definitely do an auction league to test your skills.
More unpredictability- In most snake drafts, the draft order is set before you show up to the draft or you find out when you get there. So most owners go through and do some mock drafts so they know what to expect when they get there. And most of the time you can predict what little group of players you will or can get in each round that you want. And like most any draft, you will have a few owners who make some dumb or unlikely picks that you didnt expect. But by and large, if you have a competitive league with smart owners, most snake drafts are fairly predictable and go according to most rankings or mock drafts. The great thing about an auction draft is, you have absolutely no idea how the draft will go or how your team will look after the draft. You can determine before the draft who you want on your team but if the price is too high you will have to go in a different directions and possibly use different strategies after the draft starts. A lot of players will be drafted at higher and lower prices than you originally expected. Some players you may not expect were highly sought after and end up going way above their projected value. A lot of owners may blow all their money overspending on players early and leaving you with all the money to spend on everyone else . You will always have those couple owners who come up with some wild strategies like spending most of their money on 2 or 3 players or not spending money till late in the draft. Any way you slice it, the auction draft will always provide more unpredictability and suspense than any standard snake draft.
More interactive, more fun, everyone gets more involved, better experience- In your usual snake draft, the draft order is set, so usually you are only speak when its your turn to draft. During an auction draft you have more chances to talk since you can bid on every player. Normally during a snake draft, you usually have at least an owner or 2 that will take a while to draft so it lags the draft and makes it less fun. An auction draft is constant bidding on players so its more fast paced and fun. The highlight of a snake draft is usually that one guy who picks an injured player in the early rounds that you can harass. Other than that and a few surprise picks, thats about all the excitement you get for a snake draft. The auction draft is full of excitement. The auction draft will always provide more twists and turns and surprises. There are several points in the draft where a couple owners get in a bidding war for a player and end up spending way over the projected value and thats always fun to watch. I think the auction experience is more fun in general, since you are bidding on every player you own, you feel like you earned that player as opposed to snake drafts where you just get a player since it was your turn to pick.
Auction draft doesnt usually take longer, less downtime during draft- In my experience with both drafts, either draft will take several hours. If you have a couple guys in your league that take a while to draft in a snake draft though, an auction draft could be quicker to finish than a snake draft. In an auction draft, owners take turns "nominating" players to bid on, they dont have to win the bid on them, they just have to make an opening bid on the player they nominate. So since you dont have to decide on the spot who to draft, only who to nominate, there is much less downtime waiting between picks during an auction draft. Most of the time in an auction draft, if an owner takes more than 30 seconds or so to nominate a player, the other owners will pressure him to hurry and throw a name out. I cant say for certain that every auction draft will go faster or take less time than a snake draft, but i can say that it will be a lot less boring. The only situation i would see doing a snake draft over an auction draft is if every owner cant be present at the draft.
Monday, July 30, 2007
Giants fans, management would like a refund on Barry Zito
After making a world series appearance in 2002 and having consecutive 90 wins in 03'and 04', the San Francisco Giants posted consecutive sub .500 seasons in 05' and 06'. Brian Sabean, the GM of the Giants, was on the hot seat and under pressure to make a splash in free agency. With the NL West projected to be very tough from top to bottom, it was clear to Sabean and the Giants they needed more help and adding one big player could possibly put them over the top. Plus you had Barry Bonds unsigned and they needed to prove to him they were trying to be a contender this year so he wouldnt retire or sign with another club. Pressure was mounting in the 07' offseason as all the biggest names were coming off the board. Here's a list of the 6 biggest free agent signings and their contracts they had inked up until the point before Zito signed with the Giants:
Jason Schmidt, LA Dodgers: 3 years 47 million
Gil Meche, KC Royals: 5 years 55 million
Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs: 4 years 40 millon
Jason Marquis, Chicago Cubs: 3 years 27 million
Daisuke Matsusaka, Boston Red Sox: 6 years 52 million
Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee Brewers: 4 years 40 million
When you take a look at those contracts, your first reaction is wow. Thats a lot of money being thrown around, averaging in the range from 9-14 million a year for pitchers who really arent considered aces. Schmidt you might could say that for, but age and durability concerns i think wouldnt qualify him for that tag and Matsusaka was a total unknown. You really had no idea how his game would stack up against the MLB hitters. Meche, Lilly, Marquis and Suppan are marginal #2 or 3 pitchers on a staff at best. Those guys posted an era between 4.00 and 4.50 last year and Marquis's era was over 6! So with all these average pitchers signing huge deals already, you know this set up for a perfect storm for Barry Zito's agent, Scott Boras. Boras is notoriously known now around all of baseball and all sports for getting his players signed to deals that are usually far above their projected market value. His most notable clients are Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran. Boras got the Texas Rangers to big against themselves, awarding Arod to the richest contract in baseball history, 10 years 252 million dollars. Boras got the Astros and Mets in a bidding war for Carlos Beltran using the Astros as leverage for Beltrans monstrous 7 year 119 million dollar contract he signed with the Mets. Barry Zito had been one of the most durable pitchers in the last previous 6 seasons, logging at least 34 starts and at least 210 innings a season. Zito had a Cy Young award under his belt from 2002, and carried a lot more name recognition and sizzle than the other 6 highest highest paid free agent pitchers. Thats all the ammunition Boras needed to sign Zito with the desperate Giants to one of the biggest contracts for a pitcher in baseball history: 7 years 126 million dollars. Lets now fast forward to the present and take a look at how all these pitchers are doing currently and compare their numbers. (gs= games started, qs= quality starts)
Barry Zito 7-10 5.28 era 21 GS 10 QS
Gil Meche 7-7 3.76 era 22 GS 14 QS
Daisuke Matsusaka 12-7 3.79 era 21 GS 13 QS
Ted Lilly 11-4 3.46 era 21 GS 13 QS
Jason Marquis 7-6 4.20 era 21 GS 9 QS
Jeff Suppan 8-9 5.08 era 22 GS 8 QS
Jason Schmidt 1-4 6.31 era injured
Looking at those numbers, you can say that some of those pitchers are living up to their contracts based on their previous numbers. Lilly has probably done the best, and Matsusaka wont win the Cy Young, but 12 wins, on his way to a 17-19 win season is looking very good for Daisuke and the Red sox. Meche certainly has been a pleseant surprise for the Royals, and has stepped up as their ace (albeit for the Royals). Marquis's era is decent and Suppan's is worse than average, but both players are on contending teams and have given their teams valuable innings, saving the bullpen. Jason Schmidts deal is looking pretty bad, but considering its only a 3 year deal and worth 80 million less, its not quite is big of an issue as Zito's contract. And then there's Barry Zito, who has the 4th worst era in the NL of pitchers who have made at least 20 starts, 7th worst in all the majors. Only Scott Olsen, Adam Eaton, Matt Belisle, Jose Contreras, Odalis Perez and Jorge de la rosa are worse than Zito right now. Lets see how Zito compares on his own team in relation to their stats this year and their current salaries: (gs= games started, qs= quality starts)
Barry Zito 7-10 5.28 era 21 GS 10 QS, 10 million, 7yrs 126 mil
Tim Lincecum 6-2 3.90 era 15 GS 10 QS , (? minor league deal, under 1 mil?)
Noah Lowry 11-7 3.40 era 20 GS 12 QS, 1.3 million, 4yr 9.25 mil
Matt Cain 3-12 4.02 era 21 GS 12 QS, 650,000, 4yr 9 mil
Matt Morris 7-6 4.16 era 20 GS 12 QS, 10 million, 3yr 27 mil
Looking at the rotation's total salary, Zito makes around 80 million total more than the other 4 pitchers combined. Clearly, Zito is the lowest performing starter of the 5. If Tim Lincecum had pitched all year, he would have more than 10 quality starts, giving Zito the least amount of quality starts and the highest ERA. Matt Cain has more losses, but has definitely outpitched Zito and his losses are more a product of bad run support. Given how much free agent pitchers were being paid in the 07' offseason, Cain and Lowry look like great bargains at this point, unlike Zito. Zito's stats are so bad, if he was just any young pitcher out there, he'd be sent down to the minors. But given his salary and track record, he will be forced to work it out in the majors. Looking back, would anyone have predicted Zito would be this bad? The answer to that would be no. Some thought a move to the NL would boost his numbers but they have done the opposite. But i think if the Giants management would looked closer at the numbers, they would know that Zito is not near the pitcher he was back in 2002. Here is Zito's numbers from his rookie year to present:
Year Team GS W L IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
2000 OAK 14 7 4 92.2 64 30 28 6 45 78 2.72 1.18 .195
2001 OAK 35 17 8 214.1 184 92 83 18 80 205 3.49 1.23 .230
2002 OAK 35 23 5 229.1 182 79 70 24 78 182 2.75 1.13 .218
2003 OAK 35 14 12 231.2 186 98 85 19 88 146 3.30 1.18 .219
2004 OAK 34 11 11 213.0 216 116 106 28 81 163 4.48 1.39 .263
2005 OAK 35 14 13 228.1 185 106 98 26 89 171 3.86 1.20 .221
2006 OAK 34 16 10 221.0 211 99 94 27 99 151 3.83 1.40 .257
2007 SF 21 7 10 121.0 121 77 71 15 58 81 5.28 1.48 .260
When you look at Zitos first full 3 seasons, 01'-03', he was a very good pitcher and one of the best no doubt. But if the Giants management wouldve examined his last 3 seasons in 04'-06' they should've noticed several red flags. First and most noticable to the average fan would be his era. Between 01-03 he had an average era of around 3.20, between 04-06 it was around average around 4.10, almost a full run higher. So his last 3 years in Oakland, he was only marginally better than a league average pitcher. The next red flag that shouldve been noticed is Zitos rising WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched). From 01-03, his WHIP was between 1.13 and 1.23, which is very good. A good pitcher wants to keep a WHIP in the 1.20-1.30 range (elite pitchers are usually between 1.00 and 1.20). The average pitcher's WHIP might be around 1.30 to 1.40 or higher. Zito's WHIP in 04' and 06' rose from 1.20 in the first 3 years to 1.39 and 1.40. His BAA, batting average against, which was lower than .230 his first 3 seasons, was significantly higher in 04' and 06' rising around 30 pts to .257 and .263. Zito averaged around 20 homers allowed in his first 3 seasons, which is pretty good, most good pitchers allow less than the low 20's. His last 3 seasons though he averaged 27 home runs allowed which is worse than the average MLB pitcher. In addition to all those stats, his strikeout rate decreased the last 3 seasons, and with the higher BAA, Zito was giving up about a hit per inning. Many of Zitos numbers across the board in his last 3 seasons with Oakland were average or just below average.
Barry Zito's contract may end up being historically bad, and it was already being talked about before the season even started (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove06/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=2717201&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines). This deal is already being compared to the recent disasters of deals like Mike Hampton and Kevin Brown. Zito is traditionally a better 2nd half pitcher, so he could turn it around and post respectable numbers by the end of the year. But no matter what he does he wont be worth what he signed for. In fact, i think its already its already turning into a disaster for Zito in SF. I watched his last start on friday, and Zito was getting booed off the field. Listening to the announcers and analysts talk about Zito, there could be something wrong with Zito physically and mentally. San Francisco is not a franchise like the Yankees or Red Sox that has an unlimited payroll, and Zito's deal for 18 million a year could handcuff the franchise for years. This deal could be the deathnail for GM Brian Sabean. After another year of last place finish for the Giants, dont be surprised if he doesnt return to the Giants next season. I also wouldnt be surprised if Zito is traded in the next couple years, with the Giants eating most of the contract just to get him out of town. So what have we learned from all of this? First and foremost, Scott Boras, while not a very well liked guy in sports, is very very good at his job and gets his clients paid. Zito probably didnt even deserve 10 million a year, much less 18 million and year and Boras got him his money. Secondly, with the amount of teams in the league and the current crop of pitching, good pitching is high demand and teams realize its great starting pitching that wins championships, so they will continue to pay high dollars. Thirdly, if you are going to throw big money at free agent, he better be an elite player with no questions about his talent. I think there was no question there was a lot of uncertainty about Zito's talent, given his current performance in the past 3 seasons. Like what most small market ballclubs will do, its sometimes better financially to give a young guy a chance than throw big money at a marginal veteran pitcher. The astros did something similar to this on a much lower level, giving Woody Williams a 2 yr/12 million dollar deal in which he has returned them a era over 5.00 so far. They will face a similar type decision on Jason Jennings next season (if they dont trade him), for his value on the deflated pitchers market will likely be in the range of 6-10 million a year. Hopefully the astros dont fall into the same pitfall the Giants did. The more teams get burnt by these overpriced pitchers, you figure the price of pitching will go down. But as long as theres a high demand for good pitching, and agents like Scott Boras are still out there, history will likely continue to repeat itself.
Jason Schmidt, LA Dodgers: 3 years 47 million
Gil Meche, KC Royals: 5 years 55 million
Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs: 4 years 40 millon
Jason Marquis, Chicago Cubs: 3 years 27 million
Daisuke Matsusaka, Boston Red Sox: 6 years 52 million
Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee Brewers: 4 years 40 million
When you take a look at those contracts, your first reaction is wow. Thats a lot of money being thrown around, averaging in the range from 9-14 million a year for pitchers who really arent considered aces. Schmidt you might could say that for, but age and durability concerns i think wouldnt qualify him for that tag and Matsusaka was a total unknown. You really had no idea how his game would stack up against the MLB hitters. Meche, Lilly, Marquis and Suppan are marginal #2 or 3 pitchers on a staff at best. Those guys posted an era between 4.00 and 4.50 last year and Marquis's era was over 6! So with all these average pitchers signing huge deals already, you know this set up for a perfect storm for Barry Zito's agent, Scott Boras. Boras is notoriously known now around all of baseball and all sports for getting his players signed to deals that are usually far above their projected market value. His most notable clients are Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran. Boras got the Texas Rangers to big against themselves, awarding Arod to the richest contract in baseball history, 10 years 252 million dollars. Boras got the Astros and Mets in a bidding war for Carlos Beltran using the Astros as leverage for Beltrans monstrous 7 year 119 million dollar contract he signed with the Mets. Barry Zito had been one of the most durable pitchers in the last previous 6 seasons, logging at least 34 starts and at least 210 innings a season. Zito had a Cy Young award under his belt from 2002, and carried a lot more name recognition and sizzle than the other 6 highest highest paid free agent pitchers. Thats all the ammunition Boras needed to sign Zito with the desperate Giants to one of the biggest contracts for a pitcher in baseball history: 7 years 126 million dollars. Lets now fast forward to the present and take a look at how all these pitchers are doing currently and compare their numbers. (gs= games started, qs= quality starts)
Barry Zito 7-10 5.28 era 21 GS 10 QS
Gil Meche 7-7 3.76 era 22 GS 14 QS
Daisuke Matsusaka 12-7 3.79 era 21 GS 13 QS
Ted Lilly 11-4 3.46 era 21 GS 13 QS
Jason Marquis 7-6 4.20 era 21 GS 9 QS
Jeff Suppan 8-9 5.08 era 22 GS 8 QS
Jason Schmidt 1-4 6.31 era injured
Looking at those numbers, you can say that some of those pitchers are living up to their contracts based on their previous numbers. Lilly has probably done the best, and Matsusaka wont win the Cy Young, but 12 wins, on his way to a 17-19 win season is looking very good for Daisuke and the Red sox. Meche certainly has been a pleseant surprise for the Royals, and has stepped up as their ace (albeit for the Royals). Marquis's era is decent and Suppan's is worse than average, but both players are on contending teams and have given their teams valuable innings, saving the bullpen. Jason Schmidts deal is looking pretty bad, but considering its only a 3 year deal and worth 80 million less, its not quite is big of an issue as Zito's contract. And then there's Barry Zito, who has the 4th worst era in the NL of pitchers who have made at least 20 starts, 7th worst in all the majors. Only Scott Olsen, Adam Eaton, Matt Belisle, Jose Contreras, Odalis Perez and Jorge de la rosa are worse than Zito right now. Lets see how Zito compares on his own team in relation to their stats this year and their current salaries: (gs= games started, qs= quality starts)
Barry Zito 7-10 5.28 era 21 GS 10 QS, 10 million, 7yrs 126 mil
Tim Lincecum 6-2 3.90 era 15 GS 10 QS , (? minor league deal, under 1 mil?)
Noah Lowry 11-7 3.40 era 20 GS 12 QS, 1.3 million, 4yr 9.25 mil
Matt Cain 3-12 4.02 era 21 GS 12 QS, 650,000, 4yr 9 mil
Matt Morris 7-6 4.16 era 20 GS 12 QS, 10 million, 3yr 27 mil
Looking at the rotation's total salary, Zito makes around 80 million total more than the other 4 pitchers combined. Clearly, Zito is the lowest performing starter of the 5. If Tim Lincecum had pitched all year, he would have more than 10 quality starts, giving Zito the least amount of quality starts and the highest ERA. Matt Cain has more losses, but has definitely outpitched Zito and his losses are more a product of bad run support. Given how much free agent pitchers were being paid in the 07' offseason, Cain and Lowry look like great bargains at this point, unlike Zito. Zito's stats are so bad, if he was just any young pitcher out there, he'd be sent down to the minors. But given his salary and track record, he will be forced to work it out in the majors. Looking back, would anyone have predicted Zito would be this bad? The answer to that would be no. Some thought a move to the NL would boost his numbers but they have done the opposite. But i think if the Giants management would looked closer at the numbers, they would know that Zito is not near the pitcher he was back in 2002. Here is Zito's numbers from his rookie year to present:
Year Team GS W L IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
2000 OAK 14 7 4 92.2 64 30 28 6 45 78 2.72 1.18 .195
2001 OAK 35 17 8 214.1 184 92 83 18 80 205 3.49 1.23 .230
2002 OAK 35 23 5 229.1 182 79 70 24 78 182 2.75 1.13 .218
2003 OAK 35 14 12 231.2 186 98 85 19 88 146 3.30 1.18 .219
2004 OAK 34 11 11 213.0 216 116 106 28 81 163 4.48 1.39 .263
2005 OAK 35 14 13 228.1 185 106 98 26 89 171 3.86 1.20 .221
2006 OAK 34 16 10 221.0 211 99 94 27 99 151 3.83 1.40 .257
2007 SF 21 7 10 121.0 121 77 71 15 58 81 5.28 1.48 .260
When you look at Zitos first full 3 seasons, 01'-03', he was a very good pitcher and one of the best no doubt. But if the Giants management wouldve examined his last 3 seasons in 04'-06' they should've noticed several red flags. First and most noticable to the average fan would be his era. Between 01-03 he had an average era of around 3.20, between 04-06 it was around average around 4.10, almost a full run higher. So his last 3 years in Oakland, he was only marginally better than a league average pitcher. The next red flag that shouldve been noticed is Zitos rising WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched). From 01-03, his WHIP was between 1.13 and 1.23, which is very good. A good pitcher wants to keep a WHIP in the 1.20-1.30 range (elite pitchers are usually between 1.00 and 1.20). The average pitcher's WHIP might be around 1.30 to 1.40 or higher. Zito's WHIP in 04' and 06' rose from 1.20 in the first 3 years to 1.39 and 1.40. His BAA, batting average against, which was lower than .230 his first 3 seasons, was significantly higher in 04' and 06' rising around 30 pts to .257 and .263. Zito averaged around 20 homers allowed in his first 3 seasons, which is pretty good, most good pitchers allow less than the low 20's. His last 3 seasons though he averaged 27 home runs allowed which is worse than the average MLB pitcher. In addition to all those stats, his strikeout rate decreased the last 3 seasons, and with the higher BAA, Zito was giving up about a hit per inning. Many of Zitos numbers across the board in his last 3 seasons with Oakland were average or just below average.
Barry Zito's contract may end up being historically bad, and it was already being talked about before the season even started (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove06/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=2717201&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines). This deal is already being compared to the recent disasters of deals like Mike Hampton and Kevin Brown. Zito is traditionally a better 2nd half pitcher, so he could turn it around and post respectable numbers by the end of the year. But no matter what he does he wont be worth what he signed for. In fact, i think its already its already turning into a disaster for Zito in SF. I watched his last start on friday, and Zito was getting booed off the field. Listening to the announcers and analysts talk about Zito, there could be something wrong with Zito physically and mentally. San Francisco is not a franchise like the Yankees or Red Sox that has an unlimited payroll, and Zito's deal for 18 million a year could handcuff the franchise for years. This deal could be the deathnail for GM Brian Sabean. After another year of last place finish for the Giants, dont be surprised if he doesnt return to the Giants next season. I also wouldnt be surprised if Zito is traded in the next couple years, with the Giants eating most of the contract just to get him out of town. So what have we learned from all of this? First and foremost, Scott Boras, while not a very well liked guy in sports, is very very good at his job and gets his clients paid. Zito probably didnt even deserve 10 million a year, much less 18 million and year and Boras got him his money. Secondly, with the amount of teams in the league and the current crop of pitching, good pitching is high demand and teams realize its great starting pitching that wins championships, so they will continue to pay high dollars. Thirdly, if you are going to throw big money at free agent, he better be an elite player with no questions about his talent. I think there was no question there was a lot of uncertainty about Zito's talent, given his current performance in the past 3 seasons. Like what most small market ballclubs will do, its sometimes better financially to give a young guy a chance than throw big money at a marginal veteran pitcher. The astros did something similar to this on a much lower level, giving Woody Williams a 2 yr/12 million dollar deal in which he has returned them a era over 5.00 so far. They will face a similar type decision on Jason Jennings next season (if they dont trade him), for his value on the deflated pitchers market will likely be in the range of 6-10 million a year. Hopefully the astros dont fall into the same pitfall the Giants did. The more teams get burnt by these overpriced pitchers, you figure the price of pitching will go down. But as long as theres a high demand for good pitching, and agents like Scott Boras are still out there, history will likely continue to repeat itself.
Monday, July 23, 2007
Derek Jeter...overrated?
Derek Jeter is the one the most talked about and most famous players in major league baseball. Whether you like it or not, Derek Jeter has been the most marketed guy in sports and the face of baseball for the last 5-10 years. Many experts say Jeter is on the way to a sure fire hall of fame career, while many fans say he is overrated. He certainly has the awards in his favor: AL rookie of the year, 1 silver slugger award, 3 AL gold gloves, 4 world series rings, and 1 world series MVP. At age 33, he has already 2269 hits, 5 200 hit seasons, a career .317 hitter. But, for all those who like to sing his praises, there are several critics (like myself) who say he gets too much credit and is overrated. For a guy whos supposed to be one of the best players in the whole league, he has only posted 3 20+ home run seasons and never hit over 25 home runs in his 11 year career. So with the lack of power you would think he has swiped a lot of bases in his career (like the gatorade commercial suggests), but he has only stole more than 30 bases 3 times in his career and never topped 35 steals. He averages over 100 K's a year, striking out over 100 times 7 times in his career, and 99 times twice. Only about 30-40 guys in the whole league strike out that much a year and Jeter is on that list. And while he has recently added 3 gold gloves to his resume, it is widely known that the gold glove is more of a popularity contest than anything. In fact there is evidence that suggest Jeter is a below average fielder (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-fielding-bible/) and was undeserving of his gold gloves. Many say he's had the fortune of playing on great teams and wouldnt have near the popularity or perceived greatness if he had played his career outside the northeast or New York and didnt have successful teams and great exposure like he's benefited from his whole career. If he had put up the same statistics elsewhere, say in Milwaukee, he would be a very good player but not near the player he is perceived today.
So, with all that being said, i was trying to think of a test to figure out if Derek Jeter is really "overrated". Well, first you have to figure out what a player is valued to determine whether he is in fact overrated. To me, if a guy has major endorsement deals, and is seen on many commercials, and is the most marketed guy in baseball, i think that player should be one of THE best players in the league, top 10 at least. So how then would we determine the best players in the league? Here was an idea i came up with: If every major league player was put in one big pool of players and the league was redrafted, how far would you get till Derek Jeter was drafted(this year)? Now in fairness, i'll exclude pitchers, just because they have more perceived value and would go before many position players. One thing that will be hard to quantify though is one position player over another. For instance, you cant say because a first basemen has more HRs, RBIs that he should automatically be picked over Jeter because Jeter is a shortstop and first basemen are expected to perform better offensively than shortstops. Because all these guys play different positions and some positions are valued higher than others. I think everyone would agree the highest premium positions are catcher, shortstop, and center field, so guys who can put up numbers in those positions are valued higher. But how do you value a first basemen who hits 35-40 homers for a high average against a shortstop who normally hits half as many homers and less RBIs for high average. Its a tough question to answer. So lets let you play GM, if you could build a team for THIS YEAR only(only this year, dont consider the future), how many players would you pick before Derek Jeter? Well, instead of being definite, which i think it is hard to do, i'll put these guys in different categories for you. Let me say in closing that if you can come up with 10+ players you'd start your team with over Derek Jeter, he has to be at least slightly overrated, because a guy with his popularity and endorsements SHOULD be a top 10 guy. Here is my list, you can reply and make yours, or just debate mine.....
Guys i would definitely take over Jeter:
Albert Pujols
Alex Rodriguez
Vlad Guerrerro
Guys i would take over Jeter, and could make a great argument for them:
Alfonso Soriano
Manny Ramirez
Miguel Cabrera
Jose Reyes
Joe Mauer
Brian McCann
Victor Martinez
Jimmy Rollins
Chase Utley
Hanley Ramirez
Justin Morneau
Ryan Howard
Grady Sizemore
Carlos Beltran
Torii Hunter
Lance Berkman
David Ortiz
Andruw Jones
Ichiro Suzuki
Carl Crawford
Guys i could make a decent or good argument for and could possibly take over Jeter, but i'm not so sure i can take them over Jeter:
Ivan Rodriguez
Travis Hafner
Russell Martin
Barry Bonds
Derrek Lee
Aramis Ramirez
Matt Holliday
David Wright
Gary Sheffield
Vernon Wells
Publish Post
So, with all that being said, i was trying to think of a test to figure out if Derek Jeter is really "overrated". Well, first you have to figure out what a player is valued to determine whether he is in fact overrated. To me, if a guy has major endorsement deals, and is seen on many commercials, and is the most marketed guy in baseball, i think that player should be one of THE best players in the league, top 10 at least. So how then would we determine the best players in the league? Here was an idea i came up with: If every major league player was put in one big pool of players and the league was redrafted, how far would you get till Derek Jeter was drafted(this year)? Now in fairness, i'll exclude pitchers, just because they have more perceived value and would go before many position players. One thing that will be hard to quantify though is one position player over another. For instance, you cant say because a first basemen has more HRs, RBIs that he should automatically be picked over Jeter because Jeter is a shortstop and first basemen are expected to perform better offensively than shortstops. Because all these guys play different positions and some positions are valued higher than others. I think everyone would agree the highest premium positions are catcher, shortstop, and center field, so guys who can put up numbers in those positions are valued higher. But how do you value a first basemen who hits 35-40 homers for a high average against a shortstop who normally hits half as many homers and less RBIs for high average. Its a tough question to answer. So lets let you play GM, if you could build a team for THIS YEAR only(only this year, dont consider the future), how many players would you pick before Derek Jeter? Well, instead of being definite, which i think it is hard to do, i'll put these guys in different categories for you. Let me say in closing that if you can come up with 10+ players you'd start your team with over Derek Jeter, he has to be at least slightly overrated, because a guy with his popularity and endorsements SHOULD be a top 10 guy. Here is my list, you can reply and make yours, or just debate mine.....
Guys i would definitely take over Jeter:
Albert Pujols
Alex Rodriguez
Vlad Guerrerro
Guys i would take over Jeter, and could make a great argument for them:
Alfonso Soriano
Manny Ramirez
Miguel Cabrera
Jose Reyes
Joe Mauer
Brian McCann
Victor Martinez
Jimmy Rollins
Chase Utley
Hanley Ramirez
Justin Morneau
Ryan Howard
Grady Sizemore
Carlos Beltran
Torii Hunter
Lance Berkman
David Ortiz
Andruw Jones
Ichiro Suzuki
Carl Crawford
Guys i could make a decent or good argument for and could possibly take over Jeter, but i'm not so sure i can take them over Jeter:
Ivan Rodriguez
Travis Hafner
Russell Martin
Barry Bonds
Derrek Lee
Aramis Ramirez
Matt Holliday
David Wright
Gary Sheffield
Vernon Wells
Publish Post
First blog
When i saw that some of my friends had created and posted blogs on this site, i decided it was about time for me to create my own blog. I decided since my main interest and knowledge is sports, that my blog topics will be mostly sports related. For those who are reading this and dont know me, I have played and watched sports all my life. I played basketball and baseball in little league and high school. Today i play in some mens softball and basketball leagues, i play in a few golf tournaments a year when i can, and i used to play flag football. I play fantasy football and baseball every year(and sometimes basketball), both of which i have leagues i play with some friends. I've been fairly successful in my leagues, i usually make the playoffs every year and i have a few titles. My favorite teams in sports are Astros, Cowboys, Texas Longhorns, Mavericks, Predators (hockey, but i'm a very casual fan), and i root for most of the Texas teams. I would say my current favorite players are Roy Oswalt and Tony Romo, past players would be Emmitt Smith. My least favorite teams are the New York Yankees, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Knicks, LA Lakers, Notre Dame, USC or any team from New York (thanks to ESPN). In my blogs i hope to create topics that are interesting, thought provoking, intelligent, and sometimes controversial. I will probably put a lot of time into each post so hopefully they will be informative as well as entertaining.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)